Why is Mike Tyson the underdog for fight with Jake Paul? Gambling experts offer explanation

Among oddsmakers, there’s little debate about who’s the favorite to win the Mike Tyson-Jake Paul fight.

Their pick is not the one-time Baddest Man on the Planet (aka Tyson).  

Paul, 27, has emerged as a solid favorite over Tyson, 57, with five sportsbooks that have posted odds for the sanctioned pro heavyweight fight set for July 20 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

“It’s all about age,’’ said Johnny Avello, the top oddsmaker for DraftKings. “Who steps in the ring at 57 years old?’’

Actually, Tyson will be 58 at the time of the fight. DraftKings prefers youth, listing Paul as a -180 favorite ($180 must be bet to win $100 if Paul prevails) and Tyson as a +135 underdog ($135 will be won for every $100 bet if Tyson prevails).

“We realize people are going to say, ‘Mike Tyson? The great Mike Tyson is an underdog in this against Jake Paul?’ ” Avello said. ”And they probably are going to bet the underdog, but we’re OK with that.’’

Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of race and sportsbook operations at the Westgate SuperBook, also cites age as a factor with Westgate listing Paul as a -250 favorite and Tyson as a +200 underdog.

“I know a lot of people go back to Mike Tyson’s training video and he looked really impressive and it looked like he was in shape,’’ Kornegay said, referring to videos of Tyson's training sessions posted on his social media accounts. “But it’s a pretty big hurdle for Tyson to overcome a younger, bigger foe like that despite how he looks on a training video.’’

Why else is Mike Tyson an underdog vs. Jake Paul?

In 2020, Tyson fought Roy Jones Jr. in an eight-round exhibition that ended in a draw. "But he really hasn’t fought since 2005," Avello said.

Tyson (50-6, 44 KOs) fought his last pro bout on June 11, 2005, when he failed to come out for the seventh round against journeyman Kevin McBride.

By contrast, Paul (9-1, 6 KOs) has 10 bouts since turning pro in January 2020.

“So as oddsmakers we have to look at who actually is fighting these days, and that would be Paul,’’ Avello said. “He has some skills. I’m sure he’s not going to just stand there and let Tyson just beat the crap out of him.’’

This week, the 6-foot-1 Paul said he’s 230 pounds despite having fought at the 200-pound cruiserweight division in previous bouts. Tyson is 5-foot-10 and weighed 220 pounds for his exhibition against Jones.

“Jake Paul, he’s bigger than most people think and he’s somewhat skilled and has more power at this particular time than Mike Tyson,’’ Kornegay said. “That’s how we look at it.’’

Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul odds

BetMGM: Jake Paul -185; Mike Tyson +130

BetOnline: Jake Paul -260; Mike Tyson +200

DraftKings: Jake Paul -180; Mike Tyson +135

FanDuel: Jake Paul -172; Mike Tyson +180

Westgate SuperBook: Jake Paul -250; Mike Tyson +200